The Plan
Jump down if you want the tl;dr.
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People don't vote for change unless there's hope for change, and votes splits mean Ontarians lose hope and stay home. That's why Ford won in 2022 with the lowest turnout in Ontario history.
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Ford consistently has about 40% in the polls, whereas the Liberal and NDP parties have typically had roughly 25% each. (The Green Party is around 7%) With new leadership for both, neither the Liberals nor the NDP are likely to close the gap, particularly since neither of them has a particularly distinct campaign so far.
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Ontario needs the Opposition Parties to work together
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Despite their differences, we see a lot of common ground between the parties on the important issues of healthcare, the environment and housing—and certainly, any of their proposals seem a lot better than Doug Ford's.
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If Bonnie Crombie's Liberals, Marit Stiles' NDP, and Mike Schreiner's Green Party formed a temporary coalition, Ford would easily be defeated.
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But the Opposition Parties don't want to
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Neither the Liberals nor the NDP favour joining forces.
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We know there are people within the parties who understand that working together is the best path forward, but given the likelihood of a snap election, we believe convincing the parties to work together in time is a longshot.
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Not One Seat's primary goal is to remove Doug Ford from the Premier's office, and we will always choose the most feasible path to that goal.
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If the parties won't unite, then we must unite
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If we can strategically vote Doug Ford's Conservatives down to a minority government, the Opposition parties can refuse to support them, and form a stable coalition or formal agreement to work together. Doug Ford would no longer be in charge.
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This situation is uncommon in Canada, but in 2017, the BC NDP and Green party formed an agreement and took change over the minority Liberals. In 1985, it happened in Ontario when David Peterson's Liberals worked with Bob Rae's NDP to take charge of over the minority Conservatives. It can be done.
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But we're not giving up on the bigger idea
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Convincing the parties to work together maybe a long shot, but we think it's still worth the effort.
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As a 100% volunteer-run effort, we are going to focus our resources on identifying and promoting Unity Candidates in Toronto ridings that are well-positioned to defeat the Conservatives. But we can certainly take a moment to tell the Opposition Parties what they need to do.
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If the parties unite, we can free up all our resources to campaign on their collective behalf. But if they don't, we will keep moving with strategic voting.
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And if Doug Ford wins again, we will be ready to tell the Opposition Parties that once again, this is on them.
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tl;dr: Strategically vote, flip enough seats for a Conservative minority, but still aim for the longshot goal by telling the parties to temporarily unite.​​