Where You Can Help the Most
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Our preliminary research into riding history, candidates, the polls and the campaign ground game to figure out the Unity Candidates has given us some early insight into who is very likely to be the best candidate to defeat Doug Ford's PCs. We encourage people to volunteer or donate, especially ridings that are Likely, Must Defend, or Possible
Campaigns make a difference, and so we will keep studying the polls, interviewing candidates and getting reports from the ground. We will update this list as things change. We expect to finalize and endorse Unity Candidates before advance voting begins.
Sign the Unity Pledge to receive the official endorsements once we make them, plus, the strength of our numbers helps us advocate with candidates to cooperate.
Likely to Defeat the PCs
Eglinton-Lawrence
Vince Gasparro
Liberal
In 2022, the PC incumbent won this riding by barely 500 votes--but the incumbent isn't running this time. The NDP have never been competitive in this riding.
York-South Weston
Faisal Hassan
NDP
Fewer than 800 votes separated former incumbent Faisal Hassan from the Premier's nephew Michael Ford in 2022 in a close three-way race. Still, Hassan has strong community connections, and Mike Ford is not running again.
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Lee Fairclough
Liberal
Fewer than 850 votes separated the PC candidate from Lee Fairclough in 2022, but she's back to do it all over again.
Must Defend from the PCs
Humber River-Black Creek
Tom Rakocevic
NDP
Tom Rakocevic held this riding in 2022 in a close 3-way race with barely 1,000 votes separating the NDP, Liberals and PCs. The pollsters at the time were calling it for the Liberals. This riding is shaping up to be a close 3-way race again, but we think the incumbency advantage will once more win out.
Scarborough-Guildwood
Andrea Hazell
Liberal
Elected in a hard-fought by-election after popular Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter stepped down in 2023, Andrea Hazell continues the Liberal dynasty in Scarborough-Guildwood. This may turn out to be a safer seat, but we're waiting for more information first.
Possible to Defeat the PCs
Don Valley North
Jonathan Tsao
Liberal
Jonathan Tsao ran to a strong second place finish in 2022, and is back again. The incumbent, a PC MPP who went independent following allegations of foreign election interference, is not running for the PCs, improving our chances to take this riding
Scarborough-Agincourt
Peter Yuen
Liberal
The former deputy police chief Peter Yuen is a high profile candidate, and the Liberals have held a strong second place finish since losing the riding in the Liberal Party collapse during the 2018 election.
Etobicoke Centre
John Campbell
Liberal
Kinga Surma's riding was shaping up to be a hard one to flip, but with former city councillor and former TDSB chair John Campbell running for the Liberals, things look better. Also, defeating the Minister who sold out Ontario Place and shut down the Science Centre? Yes, please.
Willowdale
Paul Saguil
Liberal
Coming out once again for Willowdale, Paul Saguil remains this North York riding's best hope to defeat the PCs, especially as the NDP have rarely shown strength here.
Scarborough Centre
Mazhar Shafiq
Liberal
Mazhar Shafiq is back again after a strong second-place finish in a very competitive 3-way race. The previous NDP candidate is now the TDSB Chair, and as such, we think Mazhar Shafiq has the edge.
York Centre
Sam Nestico
Liberal
Longtime York Centre resident Sam Nestico and former Justice of the Peace is entering politics with strong connections in this riding. The Liberal party historically shown strength here, and we see no evidence of that changing.
Difficult to Defeat the PCs
Scarborough North
We're tentatively backing Thadsha Navaneethan, pending further research. We had thought this would go to the Liberals, as NDP while support in this riding may be growing, it isn't yet been as strong as other areas of Scarborough. We can't know if this is a new trend, or two odd elections in a row. Navaneethan has strong community connections and good ground game potential, but the Liberal candidate ran here in 2022. Either way, there's a big gap to close on the PC incumbent, who was a previously a longtime city councillor.
Scarborough Rouge-Park
Morris Beckford
Liberal
We're tentatively backing Dr. Morris Beckford, pending further research. Despite being a strong candidate with deep roots in community work and eduction, we still need further clarity on this candidate's ground game, especially when NDP support in 2022 was nearly as high here as the Liberals. On the other hand, the Liberals have more history in this riding. Still, with the PC incumbent having close to 50% of the vote in 2022, this riding is simply hard to win.
Etobicoke North
Julie Lutete
Liberal
As satisfying as it would be to defeat Doug Ford in his own riding, unseating the Premier is very unlikely. Still, the Liberals held this riding before, and Julie Lutete held 2nd place in 2022. Also, we are not above a petty donation or canvas on Ford's home turf.
Watching: May Need to Defend
Don Valley East
Dr. Adil Shamji
Liberal
Adil Shamji may have one of the safer Liberal seats in Toronto, but we know the PCs will be out to get him, especially after that time he embarrassed them all in the House by reading out the Top Ten PC ridings by number of people without a family doctor--and yes, Doug Ford's riding was on that list. We love to see it!
Scarborough Southwest
Doly Begum
NDP
We endorsed Doly Begum in 2022, even when professional pollsters predicted a toss-up, because of her phenomenal ground game--and when she won the riding again, it wasn't even close.. We expect it to stay safely in her hands, but with the PC party having achieved second place, we want to keep an eye on things.
Don Valley West
Stephanie Bowman
Liberal
We endorsed Stephanie Bowman in 2022 and she came through by keeping former Premier Kathleen Wynne's seat out of former police chief Mark Saunders' PC hands. She's also behind the push to reveal Ford's expensive move to take Service Ontario away from local small business and into the US company Staples.
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Toronto-St Paul's
NDP
Normally a safe seat for non-PC voters, Toronto-St Paul's is shaping up to be a 3-way race. We suspect the NDP and Liberals will be in the lead, and incumbency will give Jill Andrews the edge, but with the CPC taking this seat federally, there may be some shifting of political sentiment in the riding. We'll be keeping an eye on it.
No Risk
Beaches–East York
Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
Spadina-Fort York
Toronto Centre
Toronto Danforth
University Rosedale
No Endorsement
Breathe easy. None of these ridings are competitive for the PCs. While we don't like watching the Liberals and NDP waste their time and energy slugging it out between each other when they could be cooperating and focused on defeating the PCs in other ridings, at least we don't have to worry about more Ford seats in the legislature from here.
If you live in one of these ridings, consider volunteering or donating to another, more competitive campaign.